A real estate investor has the opportunity to purchase land currently zoned as residential. If the county board approves a request to rezone the property as commercial within the next year, the investor will be able to lease the land to a large discount firm that wants to open a new store on the property. However, if the zoning change is not approved, the investor will have to sell the property at a loss. Profits (in thousands of dollars) are shown in the following payoff table:

State of Nature
Rezoning Approved Rezoning Not Approved
Decision Alternative s1 s2
Purchase, d1 610 -190
Do not purchase, d2 0 0
(a) If the probability that the rezoning will be approved is 0.5, what decision is recommended?
Recommended Decision:
Purchase

What is the expected profit? Enter your answer in dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000.
$
210,000


(b) The investor can purchase an option to buy the land. Under the option, the investor maintains the rights to purchase the land anytime during the next three months while learning more about possible resistance to the rezoning proposal from area residents. Probabilities are as follows:
Let H = High resistance to rezoning
L = Low resistance to rezoning
P(H) = 0.55 P(s1 | H) = 0.18 P(s2 | H) = 0.82
P(L) = 0.45 P(s1 | L) = 0.87 P(s2 | L) = 0.13
What is the optimal decision strategy if the investor uses the option period to learn more about the resistance from area residents before making the purchase decision?
High resistance:
Do not purchase

Low resistance:
Purchase


(c) If the option will cost the investor an additional $10,000, should the investor purchase the option?
The investor
should
purchase this option, as the payoff of the investing in it is
greater
than $10,000 dollars.
What is the maximum that the investor should be willing to pay for the option? Enter your answer in dollars. For example, an answer of $200 thousands should be entered as 200,000.
EVSI = $